The Scottish Boinc Team

Sometime in the next few weeks I shall clock up my second billion. To mark this momentous feat I propose a competition.

Aim of Competition:
To guess, to the nearest million, TSBT's total credits at the moment I pass 2,000,000,000.
The Rules (acknowledgements to Mr Thinhead):
All guesses must be made in whole millions eg 8,769,000,000 not 8,769,123,333.
If you can post here you can enter.
Each entrant has one guess.
This guess can be changed as often as you want.
Revisions in the final 24hrs will not count. Of course you won't necessarily know that you are in the last 24 hrs so you won't be disqualified but the guesses will be rolled back to 24 hrs before the comp ends.
Your guess cannot be the same as someone else.
The prize is a £20 Amazon voucher (or equivalent in the currency of your choice if available).
I shall be sole judge of the comp and the only interpreter of these rules.

On your marks get set go! :bounce:

What!... No fractions, irrational, imaginary or unruly numbers... I protest most vigorously!

My Guess = 9,045,000,000

...but the real question is: Will Mega retake pole position before the team hits 9 billion ?

PinkPenguin wrote:What!... No fractions, irrational, imaginary or unruly numbers... I protest most vigorously!

My Guess = 9,045,000,000

...but the real question is: Will Mega retake pole position before the team hits 9 billion ?

Thanks for the entry PP. Sheer egotism did make me consider a TSBT#1 angle but the fact that I'm competing against a much missed and apparantly deceased team-mate caused me to suffer a rare attack of respect, taste and decorum. But maybe I'm just being squeamish: Feel free to set up some side bets.

An exciting time for you Mega! Congratulations!


Should I win this wee comp, please donate my winnings to charity.

I will go for 9066000000.

Ditto on the charity

9,100,000,000

9,063,000,000, with a bullet

9,065 million. Tada.

So far (in millions)

PinkPenguin .... 9,045
Cyclone Ranger 9,063
Alez ............... 9,065
Janos ............. 9,066
Buster ........... 9,100

9,041 is my low sounding guestimate - especially looking at everyone else's numbers

Silver wrote:9,041 is my low sounding guestimate - especially looking at everyone else's numbers

Not at all, everyone else seems to have underestimated me. Un-natural 'though it may sound, I'm going to enter myself!

If I win I will give my winning to the charity of the best loser's choice.


Megacruncher .. 9,040
Silver ............. 9,041
PinkPenguin .... 9,045
Cyclone Ranger 9,063
Alez ............... 9,065
Janos ............. 9,066
Buster ........... 9,100

I have faith in you Mega :)
The last comp we had i did my calculations then changed my guess after looking at everyone else's predictions. This time I'm going to have faith in my Excel abilities :)

This time I'm going to have faith in my Excel abilities :)

I call foul. I'm using my fingers a toes and everyone else is using calculators.
The shame of it. :angry4:

Buster Gunn wrote:

This time I'm going to have faith in my Excel abilities :)

I call foul. I'm using my fingers a toes and everyone else is using calculators.
The shame of it. :angry4:

Er... how many fingers and toes you got ? ...we're talking billions here!

PinkPenguin wrote:

Buster Gunn wrote:

This time I'm going to have faith in my Excel abilities :)

I call foul. I'm using my fingers a toes and everyone else is using calculators.
The shame of it. :angry4:

Er... how many fingers and toes you got ? ...we're talking billions here!

Er... how many fingers and toes you got ? ...we're talking billions here!

That's the tough part especially after a few beers. :drunken:

Changing to 9050. Couldn't see little toe on right foot.

I think I will need to revise my guess...

Megacruncher .. 9,040
Silver ............. 9,041
PinkPenguin .... 9,045
MacDitch .........9,048
Buster ............ 9,050
Cyclone Ranger 9,063
Alez ............... 9,065
Janos ............. 9,066

I will go for 9,035,000,000

Janos ............. 9,034
Andy Manzie...... 9,035
Megacruncher ... 9,040
Silver ............. 9,041
PinkPenguin .... 9,045
MacDitch .........9,048
Buster ............ 9,050
Cyclone Ranger 9,063
Alez ............... 9,065

I'm 37 million short and the team stand at 8,919 million.

I'll not show my working (calculate it yourselves guys, ) but it's time for me to upwardly revise my guess! :)

Janos ............. 9,034
Andy Manzie...... 9,035
Megacruncher ... 9,036
Silver ............. 9,041
PinkPenguin .... 9,045
MacDitch .........9,048
Buster ............ 9,050
Cyclone Ranger . 9,063
Alez ............... 9,065

I'm revising downwards 9,032

I want up revise my estimate to 9,059,000,000

One went up, one went down!

Alez ............... 9,032
Janos ............. 9,034
Megacruncher ... 9,036
Silver ............. 9,041
PinkPenguin .... 9,045
MacDitch .........9,048
Buster ............ 9,050
Andy Manzie...... 9,059
Cyclone Ranger . 9,063

Right, so I've just passed 1,974.1 million. The current TSBT total is 8,953.7 million.

Here's some help for anyone unwilling to take their socks off. All you need to do is guess how many more million the team will crunch in the time that it takes me to crunch 25.9 million.

At worst I am likely to contribute a quarter of the team credit which would make the correct answer 9,057. More likely I will crunch something closer to, at best, a third of our credit which would make the answer 9,032. For now I'm happy with my current guess. Some of the rest of you might want to move to the centre a little bit?!

Megacruncher wrote:At worst I am likely to contribute a quarter of the team credit which would make the correct answer 9,057. More likely I will crunch something closer to, at best, a third of our credit which would make the answer 9,032. For now I'm happy with my current guess. Some of the rest of you might want to move to the centre a little bit?!

...so, if Big Mega decides to compromise between his best and worst, the result should be 9,044.5. Someone should cover the 9,044 slot as I've already got the 9,045 slot covered. That way he's surrounded... [exits stage left, with an evil and slightly insane cackle!]

Did you factor in Silver's new 7970 order, the post office strike and leaves on the line?

Janos wrote:Did you factor in Silver's new 7970 order, the post office strike and leaves on the line?

There are so many factors to this competition it is either: Really complicated to work out with a multitude of factors to take into account or guesswork :)
The idea that I could have an effect on the result with new hardware never occurred but I will have to keep it in mind

A new variable... my shiny box arrived! No cables though, they must be in the OTHER box!

How can two boxes be shipped together and end up delivered on different days...

You're probably lucky you got BOTH of them.

Janos wrote:How can two boxes be shipped together and end up delivered on different days...

They follow Non-Euclidean trajectories...

Loads of variables! Maybe best to keep it to wild guess work!
Accordingly,
9,031 Million, says I now!

MacDitch .........9,030
Megacruncher ... 9,031
Alez ............... 9,032
Janos ............. 9,034
Silver ............. 9,041
PinkPenguin .... 9,045
Buster ............ 9,050
Andy Manzie...... 9,059
Cyclone Ranger . 9,063

Down to 9,035

Well, here's to a little optimism... 9,028

More optimism and a recap

PinkPenguin .... 9,028
Megacruncher ... 9,029
MacDitch .........9,030
Alez ............... 9,032
Janos ............. 9,034
Buster ............ 9,035
Silver ............. 9,041
Andy Manzie...... 9,059
Cyclone Ranger . 9,063

1985.7 Million now so it should be over before the weekend is so get your revised guesses in now while some good ones remain and before the 24 hour roll-back rule kicks in.

I'm changing to 9,033 and hope I wasn't right the first time

Reclaiming 9,031 - recent surge in the team output - it looks like some people have got new toys. :)

Conspiracy theory:

Is it cheating when you use social engineering (NLP) to get people to buy a 7970 card just to win a competition? Even when you you declared at the start that proceeds would go to charity?

Janos wrote:Conspiracy theory:

Is it cheating when you use social engineering (NLP) to get people to buy a 7970 card just to win a competition? Even when you you declared at the start that proceeds would go to charity?

Nothing in the rules prohibiting it & indeed it sounds like the sort of tactical play that should be encouraged.

Great, now I need Silver to sort out his overclock settings... mahahaha

Janos wrote:Great, now I need Silver to sort out his overclock settings... mahahaha

Silver might be doing some throttling or overclocking if it might help me or my pirate chum

You guys are truly a band of pirates.
Remind me to never bet on the opposite side of the book from you guys.
A round of rum for my mates.

Always remember to count your fingers after shaking hands with a pirate. Yarrr !! :pirate:

The state of play is:

PinkPenguin .... 9,028
MacDitch .........9,030
Megacruncher ... 9,031
Alez ............... 9,032
Silver ............. 9,033
Janos ............. 9,034
Buster ............ 9,035
Andy Manzie...... 9,059
Cyclone Ranger . 9,063

I'm on 1,991.4 and the team's on 9,003.1 which means that the best guesses are probably already bagged. But anyone wanting to revise theirs should do so soon lest they fall foul of the 24 hour rollback rule! I reckon that the comp has at most 55 hours left to run.

Don't worry Buster, you're in with a good chance, if I don't get it I'll do my best to hand it to you. I think the gloves are well & truly off, tactics cut both (or it seems more) ways, and we old-timers have to stick together!

Situation now is that:
I am on 1994.7.
TSBT is on 9,017.3
9,031 will be exceeded, no bother, so I shall aim for 9,036.
I'll try & avoid any outright cheating (as referee that'll be easy enough) but just look out for a sudden interest in Einstein and Seti!

I'm jumping for 9,037 but I recon Buster has it at 9,035

I should have stayed with my original estimate of 9,035

I have to say that the team is tearing along at a very impressive lick. Impressed as I am by my own 4 million per day over the last week, TSBT's 12.7 million per day is quite jaw dropping. 8)

I'm 1.7 million short and the team total stands at 9,029.7. Which means that the comp will end in about 10 hour. If I'm up early enough and get all the machines updated timeously.

There certainly isn't scope for any valid or useful revised guesses so the final guesses are:

PinkPenguin .... 9,028
MacDitch .........9,030
Silver ............. 9,033
Janos ............. 9,034
Buster ............ 9,035
Megacruncher ... 9,036
Alez ............... 9,037
Andy Manzie...... 9,059
Cyclone Ranger . 9,063

Your right Mega, I looked at the stats earlier and thought 12.7 million was either amazing or a mistake!

I'm beginning to think i would've been better sticking to my my initial guess of 9,041