The Scottish Boinc Team

OK folks slight change of tack here from the previous competitions.
What will the teams cumulative total be according to Boincstats at 22:00 GMT on Thursday the 31st January?
Guesses to be made to the nearest 1000.
Closest to the correct total will win a nice bottle of whisky donated jointly by myself and BusterGunn.
Competition is open to all members of The Scottish Boinc Team with only one clause.
You must be actively crunching for the team throughout the duration of the competition.
Guesses can be made and altered until 22:00 GMT on the 15th of January.
That's it folks nice and simple.
Good luck and get guessing.

FlyingfocRS - 50,840,001

51,250,000

51,047,924

50756000

Depending on what santa brings everyone for christmas

Thats an easy one. 52135684.55. The swami see's an uptick in the daily RAC.

Hmmm....me thinks Buster has something up his sleeve!

I'll take a shot at 52,000,000, especially if Willie pulls his finger out and stops playing catch-up

I'll take a shot at 52,000,000, especially if Willie pulls his finger out and stops playing catch-up

I'm playing catch up very well thanks. Soon I'll be playing overtake. After that the game will be leave far behind! Maybe I should just move the 3rd Quad to 64 bit ABC by way of a coup de grace?

Anyhow I think you are being a bit cautious. Our RAC goes up & up. A very welcome portent is that after nearly a month of apparent inactivity Iain Aikman has uploaded over 40K of credit.

So my guess is 52,500,000!

Hmmm....me thinks Buster has something up his sleeve!

One never knows what just may pop up.

Well, somebody had to do it. :) Here's the guesses so far:

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,001
DougDoug . . . . . 51,047,924
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,684.55
MacDitch . . . . . . 52,350,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000

PS Can I suggest that answers are given in / restricted to thousands? It might get a tad ridiculous trying to guess the value to a hundreth of a credit....

PS Can I suggest that answers are given in / restricted to thousands? It might get a tad ridiculous trying to guess the value to a hundreth of a credit....

I would go further and suggest that all guessea are rounded off to the nearest 10,000. At current levels that represents just a couple of hours of crunching for the team. :)

I would go further and suggest that all guessea are rounded off to the nearest 10,000. At current levels that represents just a couple of hours of crunching for the team. :)

I'm happy with that, but I guess it is up to the guys fronting the prizes. FlyingfocRS? Buster Gunn? Any opinions on this suggested ammendment?

I'm happy with that, but I guess it is up to the guys fronting the prizes. FlyingfocRS? Buster Gunn? Any opinions on this suggested ammendment?

I have no problem with it. And seeing I was the smart A** that went all the way down to the hundredth of a point, I amend my guess to be 52,135,000.

OK I have amended the original post to reflect this.
If those of us who have made guesses out witht he rules could resubmit them.
Ta
Mike

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
DougDoug . . . . . 51,047,924 **to be amended**
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 52,350,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000

I'd have rounded off DougDoug's guess as he was only 76 credits off a round number anyway. :) Of course, this may be an ideal opportunity to change his guess...

It's interesting that we have nearly a two million spread - but then it is nearly three months away.

Had a quick trip to Edinburgh on Tues.night.
Just got home now. amended guess is 51,050,000
Thanx McDitch,hope that's what you put down for me

Hope you had a nice evening. :)

The guesses now stand at:

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
DougDoug . . . . . 51,050,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 52,350,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000

Good luck everyone, and may we all have guessed low! :) :)

53,000,001

Ops sorry about double post damed slow at times on this hotel connection never mind back home tomorrow

Jim, guesses need to be in multiples of 1,000. Do you want me to knock the 1 off?

PS. I've deleted the duplicate post for you.

I'll be the first to make a new guess,having looked at the number of newbies every week.
It's a big jump.
52,700,000

Ok, it's been a hectic weekend but thankfully I'm now back at work for a break. :) I've had a chance to look over the recent numbers and have decided to re-evaluate the team performance. In short, this is a long winded way of saying I'm changing my guess!

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000

Figured I would toss in a wild and semi uneducated guess I'll be watching this, it should be fun

Hmmmm..... just got back and seen the dramatic upturn in RAC....

better update my guestimate.....

52,580,000

cheers

ANd another update on my guess, 53,320,000

53,510,000

Optimistic, and willing to be more so.

There's been a few changes (mostly by Reeltime!) so I thought I'd do another roll-call, just to keep it all staright. :)

FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000

I'll tweak it a wee bit to reflect recent progress.

FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000

mmmm ...

53,456,000

I'm happy to donate a small prize - PM me

Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
utopia-i...............53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000

Thanks for the reminder Mike

Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
utopia-i...............53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000

not took part in the competition in a while, so my guess is 53,700,000:

Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
utopia-i...............53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
RavyDavy. . . . . .53,700,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000

I'm going to up my guess to 53,400,000.

I'm going to up my guess to 53,400,000.

Done. Afraid I'm going to be pessimistic and keep mine low.

Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,280,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 53,400,000
utopia-i . . . . . . . 53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
RavyDavy. . . . . .53,700,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000

Of course, a lot depends on Buster's occasional huge uploads. I'll shift my guess to just beside his.

Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,280,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 53,400,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,430,000
utopia-i . . . . . . . 53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
RavyDavy. . . . . .53,700,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000

I reckon a small adjust from me:


DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 53,250,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,280,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 53,400,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,430,000
utopia-i . . . . . . . 53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
RavyDavy. . . . . .53,700,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000

Of course, a lot depends on Buster's occasional huge uploads. I'll shift my guess to just beside his.

I promise I will empty out my queues in time to be calculated.

Last chance to submit new or amend old guesses folks.
Last guesses to be made by 22:00 GMT tonight.

CLOSED
Good luck folks.

So that's 16 days (minus two hours) to crunch another 2,323,000? That sounds about right 8) if we manage an average of 145K per day. Err, got that upload yet Buster?

The difference between my guess and the next one up is 300,000.
tsbt total has now gone 156,000 more than I needed.
Good Luck guys.

The tsbt total has now gone more than halfway between me and the next guess. I submit,concede,give in,throw in the towel.
Good luck guys.

If it hadn't of been for some amazing upload days you my have faired well, but don't be downhearted. With four (and a bit) days to go, I suspect you're only the first of several that will prove to have been low with their guesses; including me.

Indeedy. With 95 hrs to go and the total at 53,004,213 it seems likely that the final total will be, assuming we manage 140K per day, somewhere about 53,565,000 (give or take 65,000 or so).

Basically I think I, and all those even less optimistic than me, can only watch as the total mounts higher & higher. Which is far from being all bad.

Wow... with an initial semi-uneducated shot in the dark I will come close if you're right on the totals megacruncher! I won't win lol seeing as I am sandwiched in between a couple of my respected peers (gives evil eye look at them lol). But being new to this it is going to be cool to see how it plays out! Good luck to the still hopefulls and my condolences to the members dropping out of the race! (Next time be more optomistic about the coolest BOINC team ever! lol)

Well, with only 49 hours to go the team total currently stands at 53,307,811.05 credits.

Projects accumulated RAC is 149,854
BoincStats average RAC is 145,425

Which all supports Megacrunchers estimates of two days ago. Of course, the uploads have been a trifle... eratic... of late; so it's still anyones guess. :)

I'll do an update and prediciton at midnight tonight and tomorrow as well.

Because of my location and time difference from GMT, I'll empty my queues sometime tomorrow (about 30 hours from now) in hope that everything will get added in.

It should be a close finish. Good luck all.

OK at midnight with 48 hours to go we have
53,314,128
RAC is 149,831
So projected total is
53,613,790